Rate decisions and statements that move the whole market.
Federal Reserve alerts on Trade The Post are generated from this person's public posts and disclosures. They are not Trade The Path trend-channel signals. Each card below is a dated call with ticker, LONG or SHORT, and expected move.
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Signals from Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve
“Trump Announces New Investigation of Federal Reserve Governor - The Well News
Trump Announces New Investigation of Federal Reserve Governor The Well News”
💡 President Trump's announcement of an investigation into a Federal Reserve Governor introduces political uncertainty into monetary policy, likely causing market volatility and a flight to safety.
LONG$GLDSPDR Gold Sharesconf 7/10▲ +0.9% expectedBuy $384.58 → Peak $384.50▼ −0.02% · $-0.02 per $100so far · open
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $31.80 → Peak $31.82▲ +0.06% · +$0.06 per $100so far · open
LONG$TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFconf 7/10▲ +1% expectedBuy $77.98 → Peak $78.00▲ +0.03% · +$0.03 per $100so far · open
Federal Reserve
“Ticker: EU and China strike interim trade deal; Trump aims at Cook, again - Boston Herald
Ticker: EU and China strike interim trade deal; Trump aims at Cook, again Boston Herald”
💡 The headline reports an interim trade deal between the EU and China, which is generally positive for global trade, while also noting Trump's continued criticism of Apple CEO Tim Cook, which could create uncertainty for Apple.
LONG$FXIiShares China Large-Cap ETFconf 7/10▲ +1.7% expectedBuy $34.24 → Peak $34.22▼ −0.06% · $-0.06 per $100so far · open
SHORT$AAPLApple Inc.conf 4/10▼ −0.6% expectedBuy $336.25 → Peak $336.00▲ +0.07% · +$0.07 per $100so far · open
Federal Reserve
“Trump sets up committee to probe Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook in latest bid to fire her - The Times of India
Trump sets up committee to probe Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook in latest bid to fire her The Times of India”
💡 Reports indicate Trump is forming a committee to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, potentially leading to her removal, which could increase political pressure on the Fed and create market uncertainty.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 7/10▲ +1.8% expectedBuy $24.51 → Peak $24.52▲ +0.04% · +$0.04 per $100so far · open
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $31.83 → Peak $31.83▲ +0.02% · +$0.02 per $100so far · open
LONG$TBFProShares Short 20+ Year Treasuryconf 7/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $26.72 → Peak $26.72▼ −0.02% · $-0.02 per $100so far · open
LONG$SEFProShares Short Financialsconf 6/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $30.87 → Peak $30.84▼ −0.1% · $-0.10 per $100so far · open
Federal Reserve
“New York Federal Reserve says inflation on everyday items is because of tariffs - KEYE
New York Federal Reserve says inflation on everyday items is because of tariffs KEYE”
💡 The New York Fed's statement linking inflation to tariffs suggests a potential for continued high prices and a hawkish Fed stance, negatively impacting consumer spending and the broader market.
LONG$DOGProShares Short Dow30conf 7/10▲ +1% expectedBuy $22.11 → Peak $22.14▲ +0.09% · +$0.09 per $100so far · open
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $31.89 → Peak $31.91▲ +0.06% · +$0.06 per $100so far · open
SHORT$XRTState Street SPDR S&P Retail ETFconf 6/10▼ −1% expectedBuy $83.68 → Peak $83.44▲ +0.29% · +$0.29 per $100so far · open
Federal Reserve
“Four signs it is about to get uglier in the bond market - Reuters
Four signs it is about to get uglier in the bond market Reuters”
💡 A Reuters report suggesting an 'uglier' bond market implies rising yields, which is bearish for bond prices and rate-sensitive equities.
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 6/10▲ +1% expectedBuy $31.97 → Peak $31.93▼ −0.12% · $-0.12 per $100so far · open
LONG$XLFState Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 6/10▲ +0.9% expectedBuy $54.23 → Peak $54.82▲ +1.09% · +$1.09 per $100✓ hit expected moveso far · open
LONG$TBTProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasuryconf 5/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $42.19 → Peak $42.94▲ +1.77% · +$1.77 per $100✓ hit expected moveso far · open
SHORT$XLKState Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 5/10▼ −0.9% expectedBuy $197.78 → Peak $197.38▲ +0.2% · +$0.20 per $100so far · open
Federal Reserve
“CITIC International: Expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times in 2027 - Moomoo
CITIC International: Expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times in 2027 Moomoo”
💡 A report from CITIC International suggests the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times in 2027, which could negatively impact growth stocks and the broader market.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 7/10▲ +1.8% expectedBuy $24.55 → Peak $24.58▲ +0.12% · +$0.12 per $100so far · open
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $31.97 → Peak $31.93▼ −0.12% · $-0.12 per $100so far · open
SHORT$XLYState Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 6/10▼ −1.8% expectedBuy $111.71 → Peak $112.13▼ −0.38% · $-0.38 per $100so far · open
SHORT$XLKState Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 5/10▼ −1.5% expectedBuy $198.30 → Peak $197.38▲ +0.46% · +$0.46 per $100so far · open
Federal Reserve
“Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Federal Reserve”
💡 The Federal Reserve Board announced an enforcement action against American Express for failing to detect and report suspicious money laundering activity, which is bearish for AXP.
SHORT$AXPAmerican Express Companyconf 8/10▼ −2.5% expectedBuy $305.57 → Peak $301.31▲ +1.39% · +$1.39 per $100so far · open
NEUTRAL$SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trustconf 4/10no clear movetracking…
Federal Reserve
“'Fed wants US economy to do badly...': Trump targets Federal Reserve over Mortgage rates - The Economic Times
'Fed wants US economy to do badly...': Trump targets Federal Reserve over Mortgage rates The Economic Times”
💡 Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve over high mortgage rates could increase political pressure on the Fed, potentially leading to speculation about future rate policy and impacting interest-rate sensitive sectors.
LONG$IYRiShares U.S. Real Estate ETFconf 7/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $93.89 → Peak $96.32▲ +2.59% · +$2.59 per $100✓ hit expected moveso far · open
LONG$XHBState Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETFconf 7/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $94.89 → Peak $96.02▲ +1.19% · +$1.19 per $100so far · open
LONG$SEFProShares Short Financialsconf 5/10▲ +0.8% expectedBuy $31.38 → Peak $31.51▲ +0.43% · +$0.43 per $100so far · open
NEUTRAL$SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trustconf 5/10no clear movetracking…
Federal Reserve
“Trump says Federal Reserve Board would like to see the country do badly - Bilyonaryo Business
Trump says Federal Reserve Board would like to see the country do badly Bilyonaryo Business”
💡 Former President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve could increase political pressure on the central bank, potentially leading to market uncertainty and a more dovish stance, which would be bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold, but bearish for banks.
LONG$GLDSPDR Gold Sharesconf 7/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $375.88 → Sell $401.83▲ +6.9% · +$6.90 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$SEFProShares Short Financialsconf 4/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $31.38 → Sell $31.51▲ +0.43% · +$0.43 per $100
SHORT$UUPInvesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fundconf 5/10▼ −0.5% expectedBuy $29.04 → Sell $28.97▲ +0.24% · +$0.24 per $100
NEUTRAL$SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trustconf 4/10no clear movetracking…
Federal Reserve
“Federal Reserve signals higher rates as experts weigh market impact - Fox Business
Federal Reserve signals higher rates as experts weigh market impact Fox Business”
💡 The Federal Reserve's signal of higher interest rates is bearish for the broad market, particularly growth stocks and interest-rate sensitive sectors like real estate and financials.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 7/10▲ +2.5% expectedBuy $24.28 → Sell $24.73▲ +1.83% · +$1.83 per $100
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +2% expectedBuy $31.84 → Sell $32.11▲ +0.84% · +$0.84 per $100
LONG$REKProShares Short Real Estateconf 6/10▲ +2% expectedBuy $16.86 → Sell $17.06▲ +1.19% · +$1.19 per $100
LONG$XLFState Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 6/10▲ +1% expectedBuy $53.76 → Sell $54.82▲ +1.96% · +$1.96 per $100✓ hit expected move
Federal Reserve
“Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Unity Behind September Rate Hike - Bloomberg.com
Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Unity Behind September Rate Hike Bloomberg.com”
💡 FOMC minutes reveal broad agreement for continued rate hikes, signaling further tightening and a bearish outlook for equities and bonds.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 7/10▲ +2% expectedBuy $24.28 → Sell $24.73▲ +1.83% · +$1.83 per $100
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $31.83 → Sell $32.11▲ +0.88% · +$0.88 per $100
LONG$XLFState Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 7/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $53.76 → Sell $54.82▲ +1.98% · +$1.98 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$TBTProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasuryconf 6/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $42.96 → Sell $43.59▲ +1.47% · +$1.47 per $100
SHORT$XHBState Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETFconf 8/10▼ −2.8% expectedBuy $94.73 → Sell $93.50▲ +1.3% · +$1.30 per $100
SHORT$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETFconf 6/10▼ −2% expectedBuy $623.30 → Sell $600.32▲ +3.69% · +$3.69 per $100✓ hit expected move
Federal Reserve
“Fed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when, minutes show - CNBC
Fed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when, minutes show CNBC”
💡 FOMC minutes indicate a potential future rate hike, which could negatively impact growth-sensitive sectors and the broader market.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 7/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $24.27 → Sell $24.73▲ +1.85% · +$1.85 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +0.8% expectedBuy $31.82 → Sell $32.11▲ +0.9% · +$0.90 per $100✓ hit expected move
SHORT$XHBState Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETFconf 7/10▼ −1.5% expectedBuy $94.63 → Sell $93.50▲ +1.2% · +$1.20 per $100
SHORT$XLKState Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 6/10▼ −0.8% expectedBuy $201.19 → Sell $196.48▲ +2.34% · +$2.34 per $100✓ hit expected move
Federal Reserve
“Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely coming this year to combat persistent inflation - Baltimore Sun
Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely coming this year to combat persistent inflation Baltimore Sun”
💡 Fed minutes indicate another rate hike is likely this year, which is bearish for growth stocks and the broader market.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 7/10▲ +2% expectedBuy $24.27 → Sell $24.73▲ +1.88% · +$1.88 per $100
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $31.82 → Sell $32.11▲ +0.91% · +$0.91 per $100
SHORT$XLKState Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 6/10▼ −2% expectedBuy $201.41 → Sell $196.48▲ +2.45% · +$2.45 per $100✓ hit expected move
SHORT$XLYState Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 6/10▼ −2% expectedBuy $111.35 → Sell $110.60▲ +0.67% · +$0.67 per $100
Federal Reserve
“Federal Reserve officials expect another rate hike will be needed this year, according to minutes - KVUE
Federal Reserve officials expect another rate hike will be needed this year, according to minutes KVUE”
💡 Federal Reserve minutes indicate another rate hike is expected this year, which is bearish for equities and bullish for the dollar and short-term bonds.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 7/10▲ +2% expectedBuy $24.27 → Sell $24.73▲ +1.85% · +$1.85 per $100
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $31.82 → Sell $32.11▲ +0.9% · +$0.90 per $100
LONG$XLFState Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 7/10▲ +1% expectedBuy $53.74 → Sell $54.82▲ +2.02% · +$2.02 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$TBTProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasuryconf 6/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $42.94 → Sell $43.59▲ +1.51% · +$1.51 per $100✓ hit expected move
Federal Reserve
“Hawkish Fed triggers emerging market outflows in September - Reuters
Hawkish Fed triggers emerging market outflows in September Reuters”
💡 A hawkish Federal Reserve stance in September led to capital outflows from emerging markets, indicating a stronger dollar and higher U.S. rates, which is bearish for EM assets.
LONG$EUMProShares Short MSCI Emerging Marketsconf 7/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $15.37 → Sell $15.96▲ +3.84% · +$3.84 per $100✓ hit expected move
SHORT$EMBiShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETFconf 6/10▼ −1.2% expectedBuy $90.95 → Sell $90.23▲ +0.79% · +$0.79 per $100
SHORT$FXIiShares China Large-Cap ETFconf 6/10▼ −1% expectedBuy $33.77 → Sell $33.24▲ +1.55% · +$1.55 per $100✓ hit expected move
NEUTRAL$SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trustconf 4/10no clear movetracking…
Federal Reserve
“U.S. Stock Market Preview | The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are set to be released at 2:00 a.m.; all three major stock index futures are down, while U.S. Treasury yields rise; Iran plans to seal off the "illegal shipping lane" in the ”
💡 The upcoming release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes and rising U.S. Treasury yields suggest potential market volatility, while Iran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz could impact oil prices.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 7/10▲ +1% expectedBuy $24.18 → Sell $24.73▲ +2.25% · +$2.25 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +0.8% expectedBuy $31.74 → Sell $32.11▲ +1.15% · +$1.15 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$TBFProShares Short 20+ Year Treasuryconf 7/10▲ +0.8% expectedBuy $26.92 → Sell $27.21▲ +1.08% · +$1.08 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$USOUnited States Oil Fund, LPconf 6/10▲ +2% expectedBuy $144.91 → Sell $150.48▲ +3.84% · +$3.84 per $100✓ hit expected move
Federal Reserve
“SF Fed president: AI demand could extend energy shock - Axios
SF Fed president: AI demand could extend energy shock Axios”
💡 Comments from the SF Fed president suggest AI demand could prolong high energy prices, benefiting energy producers but potentially hurting energy-intensive sectors and the broader economy.
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 6/10▲ +0.9% expectedBuy $31.67 → Sell $32.11▲ +1.39% · +$1.39 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$XLEState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 5/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $63.92 → Sell $65.86▲ +3.03% · +$3.03 per $100✓ hit expected move
“High Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing the A.I. Boom. That’s a Problem for the Fed. - The New York Times
High Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing the A.I. Boom. That’s a Problem for the Fed. The New York Times”
💡 The New York Times reports that high interest rates are not slowing the AI boom, which could lead the Fed to maintain or increase rates, impacting growth stocks and the broader market.
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 7/10▲ +0.8% expectedBuy $31.92 → Sell $32.11▲ +0.58% · +$0.58 per $100
LONG$TBFProShares Short 20+ Year Treasuryconf 7/10▲ +1.1% expectedBuy $27.04 → Sell $27.21▲ +0.63% · +$0.63 per $100
LONG$GOOGLAlphabet Inc.conf 6/10▲ +1.6% expectedBuy $346.51 → Sell $356.88▲ +2.99% · +$2.99 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$MSFTMicrosoft Corporationconf 5/10▲ +1.3% expectedBuy $524.70 → Sell $535.69▲ +2.09% · +$2.09 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$NVDANVIDIA Corporationconf 5/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $239.44 → Sell $251.44▲ +5.01% · +$5.01 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.conf 5/10▲ +1.7% expectedBuy $43.21 → Sell $45.76▲ +5.91% · +$5.91 per $100✓ hit expected move
Federal Reserve
“Standard Chartered expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points before mid-next year, with a potential pivot to rate cuts in the second half of next year. - 富途牛牛
Standard Chartered expects the Federal Rese”
💡 Standard Chartered predicts the Fed will raise rates by 50 bps by mid-next year, then cut rates in H2 2027, suggesting short-term tightening followed by easing.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 6/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $24.52 → Sell $24.59▲ +0.29% · +$0.29 per $100
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 6/10▲ +1% expectedBuy $32.12 → Sell $32.20▲ +0.25% · +$0.25 per $100
LONG$TBTProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasuryconf 6/10▲ +1.5% expectedBuy $42.54 → Sell $43.77▲ +2.89% · +$2.89 per $100✓ hit expected move
LONG$XLFState Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETFconf 6/10▲ +1% expectedBuy $53.49 → Sell $54.30▲ +1.51% · +$1.51 per $100✓ hit expected move
Federal Reserve
“Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates again - Washington Examiner
Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates again Washington Examiner”
💡 The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again, which is bearish for the broad market and growth stocks, while potentially bullish for banks.
LONG$PSQProShares Short QQQconf 8/10▲ +1.8% expectedBuy $24.52 → Sell $24.59▲ +0.29% · +$0.29 per $100
LONG$SHProShares Short S&P500conf 8/10▲ +1.2% expectedBuy $32.12 → Sell $32.20▲ +0.25% · +$0.25 per $100
LONG$KBEState Street SPDR S&P Bank ETFconf 7/10▲ +1% expectedBuy $64.36 → Sell $64.51▲ +0.24% · +$0.24 per $100