How we measure Trade The Post alerts

Trade The Post vs Trade The Path

Trade The Post watches public posts and disclosures from market movers and sends a Telegram alert with ticker, LONG or SHORT, expected move and confidence.

Trade The Path is a different product: trend channels and where to buy or sell a stock. A number you see on tradethepost.com is a Post alert statistic, not a Path channel statistic.

Hit rate (reached the expected move)

• Universe: every alert that has finished its tracking window, published on /track-record — no cherry-picking.
• Target: the expected move the alert published (the “still expected” move when price had already moved before the alert), which with the alert price gives the alert’s target price.
• Window: the same hours shown on the track record (peak or trough inside that window, not a close-of-day mark).
• LONG: a hit only if the high after the alert reaches the alert price plus the expected move inside the window.
• SHORT: a hit only if the low after the alert reaches the alert price minus the expected move inside the window.
• Misses: a move our way that fell short of the expected move, a move against us, and an alert that published no expected move.
• Not measured: fill quality, slippage, overnight gaps you could not trade, or Path positions.

Scope

These definitions apply only to Trade The Post alerts on /track-record and per-tracker pages. They do not describe Trade The Path trend channels or sell targets.