Kevin Warsh Stock Trade Alerts & Tracker

“Sticky Inflation Report Raises Jackson Hole Stakes for Fed’s Warsh - The Daily Upside Sticky Inflation Report Raises Jackson Hole Stakes for Fed’s Warsh The Daily Upside”

💡 A 'sticky inflation' report ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium increases pressure on Fed Chair Warsh, likely leading to a more hawkish stance and higher interest rates, which is bearish for growth stocks and the broader market.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 8/10 ▼ −0.9% expected tracking…
• SHORT $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −0.7% expected tracking…
• SHORT $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −1% expected tracking…
• LONG $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 5/10 ▲ +0.5% expected tracking…

“Gold scales higher on softer US yields as traders await Fed Chair Warsh's speech - FXStreet Gold scales higher on softer US yields as traders await Fed Chair Warsh's speech FXStreet”

💡 Traders are awaiting Fed Chair Warsh's speech, which could impact gold and bond yields, but the content is unknown.

• NEUTRAL $GLD SPDR Gold Shares conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 5/10 no clear move tracking…

“Gold Price Holds Above $4,600 Ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech - BeInCrypto Gold Price Holds Above $4,600 Ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech BeInCrypto”

💡 The market is anticipating Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, which could influence gold prices and broader market sentiment.

• NEUTRAL $GLD SPDR Gold Shares conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 5/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 5/10 no clear move tracking…

“Lofty bond yields, Bessent's intervention pose challenge to Fed's Warsh - Yahoo Finance UK Lofty bond yields, Bessent's intervention pose challenge to Fed's Warsh Yahoo Finance UK”

💡 Reports of lofty bond yields and external intervention challenging Fed Chair Warsh suggest potential for continued hawkish monetary policy, which could negatively impact growth stocks and the broader market.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 7/10 ▼ −0.8% expected tracking…
• SHORT $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 5/10 ▼ −0.6% expected tracking…
• SHORT $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 5/10 ▼ −1% expected tracking…
• LONG $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 4/10 ▲ +0.4% expected tracking…

“Gold forecast: XAU/USD retreats along with dollar debasement trade - FOREX.com Gold forecast: XAU/USD retreats along with dollar debasement trade FOREX.com”

💡 A report on gold retreating with dollar debasement trade suggests a bearish outlook for gold prices.

• SHORT $GLD SPDR Gold Shares conf 5/10 ▼ −0.6% expected tracking…
• SHORT $IAU iShares Gold Trust conf 5/10 ▼ −0.5% expected tracking…

“Inflation is stuck above 2%. Can the Fed really do anything about it? - marketplace.org Inflation is stuck above 2%. Can the Fed really do anything about it? marketplace.org”

💡 A news report highlighting persistent inflation above 2% suggests the Fed may need to maintain or increase hawkish policies, which is bearish for growth stocks and the broader market.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 8/10 ▼ −1.1% expected tracking…
• SHORT $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −0.6% expected tracking…
• SHORT $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −1% expected tracking…

“July PCE held at 3.7%, hands Warsh a rate-hike argument for Jackson Hole Friday - Martin Cid Magazine July PCE held at 3.7%, hands Warsh a rate-hike argument for Jackson Hole Friday Martin Cid Magazine”

💡 Higher-than-expected July PCE data strengthens the argument for Federal Reserve Chair Warsh to advocate for a rate hike at Jackson Hole, likely leading to a sell-off in growth stocks and a rally in the dollar.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 8/10 ▼ −1.8% expected tracking…
• LONG $UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund conf 7/10 ▲ +1% expected tracking…
• SHORT $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −1% expected tracking…
• SHORT $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −1.5% expected tracking…

“US Stocks Close Lower, Dow Drops 110 Points as Resilient PCE Inflation Reignites Rate-Hike Expectations; Fed Chair Warsh to Speak Friday - TradingKey US Stocks Close Lower, Dow Drops 110 Points as Resilient PCE Inflation Reignites Rate-Hik”

💡 Anticipation of Fed Chair Warsh's speech on Friday, following resilient PCE inflation, is reigniting rate-hike expectations, likely leading to further market caution.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 8/10 ▼ −0.9% expected Buy $83.38 → Peak $83.27 ▲ 0.13% · +$0.13 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 7/10 ▼ −0.8% expected Buy $767.09 → Peak $764.65 ▲ 0.32% · +$0.32 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 7/10 ▼ −1.1% expected Buy $712.93 → Peak $672.82 ▲ 5.63% · +$5.63 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $XLK State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 7/10 ▼ −1.2% expected Buy $183.51 → Peak $182.84 ▲ 0.37% · +$0.37 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 5/10 ▲ +0.5% expected Buy $58.28 → Peak $58.31 ▲ 0.05% · +$0.05 per $100 so far · open

“Warsh’s Jackson Hole Silence May Push Long-Term Rates Much Higher - Seeking Alpha Warsh’s Jackson Hole Silence May Push Long-Term Rates Much Higher Seeking Alpha”

💡 A Seeking Alpha report speculates that Fed Chair Warsh's silence at Jackson Hole could signal a hawkish stance, potentially pushing long-term rates higher, which would negatively impact growth stocks and benefit banks.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 6/10 ▼ −1.8% expected Buy $83.18 → Peak $83.10 ▲ 0.10% · +$0.10 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $KRE State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF conf 4/10 ▲ +0.8% expected Buy $74.75 → Peak $74.94 ▲ 0.25% · +$0.25 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 4/10 ▼ −1% expected Buy $709.54 → Peak $672.82 ▲ 5.17% · +$5.17 per $100 so far · open

“Kevin Warsh Just Got Another Reason to Raise Rates in September - 24/7 Wall St. Kevin Warsh Just Got Another Reason to Raise Rates in September 24/7 Wall St.”

💡 A news report suggests Fed Chair Warsh has new reasons to raise rates in September, which would be bearish for equities and bullish for the dollar and bond yields.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 7/10 ▼ −1% expected Buy $83.15 → Peak $83.07 ▲ 0.10% · +$0.10 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −0.75% expected Buy $765.41 → Peak $763.93 ▲ 0.19% · +$0.19 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −1% expected Buy $709.65 → Peak $672.82 ▲ 5.19% · +$5.19 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund conf 6/10 ▲ +0.4% expected Buy $28.02 → Peak $28.04 ▲ 0.05% · +$0.05 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 6/10 ▲ +0.6% expected Buy $58.29 → Peak $58.38 ▲ 0.16% · +$0.16 per $100 so far · open

“Fed set to be data dependent in the months ahead - Financial Times Fed set to be data dependent in the months ahead Financial Times”

💡 The Federal Reserve's continued data-dependent stance implies ongoing market sensitivity to economic indicators, leading to potential volatility across sectors.

• NEUTRAL $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…

“Bessent's buybacks 'bind' Fed Chair Warsh's rate-hiking path - TS Lombard - Seeking Alpha Bessent's buybacks 'bind' Fed Chair Warsh's rate-hiking path - TS Lombard Seeking Alpha”

💡 Report suggests corporate buybacks are complicating the Fed's ability to raise rates, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance to combat inflation.

• LONG $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 6/10 ▲ +0.7% expected Buy $58.17 → Peak $58.38 ▲ 0.36% · +$0.36 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 5/10 ▼ −0.6% expected Buy $765.71 → Peak $763.93 ▲ 0.23% · +$0.23 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 5/10 ▼ −0.7% expected Buy $710.26 → Peak $672.82 ▲ 5.27% · +$5.27 per $100 so far · open

“Kevin Warsh urged policy neutrality at Jackson Hole amid Treasury's bond buybacks and steady long-term rates. - Pluang Kevin Warsh urged policy neutrality at Jackson Hole amid Treasury's bond buybacks and steady long-term rates. Pluang”

💡 Fed Chair Warsh's call for policy neutrality at Jackson Hole suggests no immediate change in monetary policy, leading to a neutral outlook for broad market indices and interest-rate sensitive sectors.

• NEUTRAL $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…

“FirstFT: US Treasury on collision course with Fed - Financial Times FirstFT: US Treasury on collision course with Fed Financial Times”

💡 Report suggests a potential conflict between the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve, which could lead to market uncertainty and higher interest rates.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 7/10 ▼ −1.8% expected Buy $83.24 → Peak $83.07 ▲ 0.20% · +$0.20 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −1.2% expected Buy $764.89 → Peak $763.93 ▲ 0.13% · +$0.13 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 5/10 ▲ +0.9% expected Buy $58.37 → Peak $58.38 ▲ 0.01% · +$0.01 per $100 so far · open

“The Fed Chairman Is Heading to Jackson Hole Without a Clear Stance on Inflation - WSJ The Fed Chairman Is Heading to Jackson Hole Without a Clear Stance on Inflation WSJ”

💡 The Fed Chair's unclear stance on inflation ahead of Jackson Hole creates uncertainty, likely leading to market caution.

• NEUTRAL $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 5/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund conf 5/10 no clear move tracking…

“Warsh Jackson Hole keynote puts financial innovation first - Crypto News Warsh Jackson Hole keynote puts financial innovation first Crypto News”

💡 Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's focus on financial innovation at Jackson Hole is bullish for cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies.

• LONG $MARA MARA Holdings, Inc. conf 8/10 ▲ +4.5% expected Buy $11.73 → Peak $11.79 ▲ 0.51% · +$0.51 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. conf 8/10 ▲ +4.5% expected Buy $20.96 → Peak $21.33 ▲ 1.78% · +$1.78 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. conf 6/10 ▲ +3% expected Buy $184.82 → Peak $186.00 ▲ 0.64% · +$0.64 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $BITO ProShares Bitcoin ETF conf 5/10 ▲ +2.5% expected Buy $10.59 → Peak $10.67 ▲ 0.76% · +$0.76 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 5/10 ▲ +0.3% expected Buy $765.52 → Peak $770.87 ▲ 0.70% · +$0.70 per $100 so far · open

“Rupiah Weakens Ahead of Fed's Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole - Tempo.co English Rupiah Weakens Ahead of Fed's Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole Tempo.co English”

💡 The Indonesian Rupiah weakened ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, indicating market anticipation of potential U.S. monetary policy shifts.

• NEUTRAL $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 5/10 no clear move tracking…

“Anxious investors hope for clarity on Warsh's Fed plan at Jackson Hole - Reuters Anxious investors hope for clarity on Warsh's Fed plan at Jackson Hole Reuters”

💡 Investors are awaiting clarity on Fed Chair Warsh's plan at Jackson Hole, which could impact interest rates and the broad market.

• NEUTRAL $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…
• NEUTRAL $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 6/10 no clear move tracking…

“‘Honeymoon’s Over’: Warsh Under Pressure as Fed Weighs Raising Rates - The New York Times ‘Honeymoon’s Over’: Warsh Under Pressure as Fed Weighs Raising Rates The New York Times”

💡 Reports suggest Fed Chair Warsh is under pressure to raise interest rates, which would be bearish for growth stocks and the broader market.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 8/10 ▼ −1.5% expected Buy $83.27 → Peak $83.07 ▲ 0.24% · +$0.24 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 7/10 ▲ +1.3% expected Buy $58.40 → Peak $58.40 ▼ 0.00% · $0.00 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −1.2% expected Buy $765.46 → Peak $763.93 ▲ 0.20% · +$0.20 per $100 so far · open
• SHORT $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 6/10 ▼ −1.5% expected Buy $709.35 → Peak $672.82 ▲ 5.15% · +$5.15 per $100 so far · open

“Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Preview: Letting Long-End Rates "Do the Fed's Hiking"? - odaily.news Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Preview: Letting Long-End Rates "Do the Fed's Hiking"? odaily.news”

💡 Speculation that Fed Chair Warsh might signal a pause in rate hikes, letting long-term rates tighten financial conditions, could be bullish for equities and bearish for long-term bonds.

• SHORT $TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF conf 7/10 ▼ −1.5% expected Buy $83.28 → Peak $83.07 ▲ 0.25% · +$0.25 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust conf 5/10 ▲ +0.6% expected Buy $765.65 → Peak $770.25 ▲ 0.60% · +$0.60 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF conf 4/10 ▲ +0.7% expected Buy $58.31 → Peak $58.40 ▲ 0.15% · +$0.15 per $100 so far · open
• LONG $QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust conf 4/10 ▲ +0.65% expected Buy $709.70 → Peak $717.44 ▲ 1.09% · +$1.09 per $100 so far · open